Knight School Baseball

I think Billy Beane’s philosophy regarding scouting and drafting makes sense. It is completely rational. Why should you continue listening to the scouts that repeatedly bring you bust after bust based on nothing more than observed “potential”? In following the Harvard graduate, computer toting, statistics man, Billy Beane is being completely sane. The player picked based on the “classic” scouting model will on average be less useful to the organization as a whole that the player picked entirely on a statistical basis. The problem I have with this, however, is that sports in general, including baseball, are not rational and never will be. Would Beane’s model work for continuing slow, but steady growth of the franchise? I have no doubt that it would. But I do doubt that they would ever become National Champions with such a philosophy. A stat analysis of draft picks will get them reliable performers, but I don’t think they will ever get those catalyst homegrown superstars using this method. And ultimately I think these are required to make a World Series run regardless of how consistent your players are. You need to take the risks to see the fantastic upsides every once in a while.